

. * Reproducing Figure 1

. sts graph, failure

         failure _d:  Access88
   analysis time _t:  TimeToRatification





. * Table 1 Regression (1)

. stcox SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP V
> otingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT, vce(cluster SECURITY)

         failure _d:  Access88
   analysis time _t:  TimeToRatification

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -676.8202
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -611.61972
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -607.0892
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03578
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03568
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03568
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03568

Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          239                Number of obs   =       239
No. of failures      =          136
Time at risk         =         2673
                                                   Wald chi2(1)    =      8.69
Log pseudolikelihood =   -607.03568                Prob > chi2     =    0.0032

                                               (Std. Err. adjusted for 2 clusters in SECURITY)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
                          _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .6501414   .1329759    -2.11   0.035     .4354199    .9707498
               SUPRANATIONAL |   .9555192   .1039016    -0.42   0.676     .7721134    1.182491
             Majoritarian_IG |   1.238818   .0721042     3.68   0.000     1.105259    1.388516
                    SECURITY |   1.007728   .1154522     0.07   0.946     .8050523    1.261429
                  MINORITIES |   1.483376   .0130837    44.71   0.000     1.457953    1.509242
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |   1.230361   .0790852     3.23   0.001     1.084723    1.395552
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .9634939   .0121718    -2.94   0.003     .9399306     .987648
                 NUMBER_ARAB |   .9885869   .0761077    -0.15   0.881     .8501273    1.149597
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |   1.149825   .0371596     4.32   0.000     1.079252    1.225012
                   UN_TREATY |   1.074458   .0633609     1.22   0.223      .957181    1.206104
               US_MEMBERSHIP |   1.562778   .0731799     9.53   0.000     1.425733    1.712996
        VotingSimilarityInUN |   .0374093   .0416918    -2.95   0.003     .0042105    .3323715
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity |   .5684258    .081951    -3.92   0.000     .4285036    .7540376
              NUMBER_MEMBERS |     .97388   .0069747    -3.70   0.000     .9603053    .9876466
                         GDP |   .6337418    .137201    -2.11   0.035     .4146032     .968706
                      Income |   .3687126   .0040453   -90.94   0.000     .3608686    .3767271
                   RULEofLAW |   1.163114   .2207452     0.80   0.426     .8018151    1.687214
                        GINI |   1.071866   .0043515    17.09   0.000     1.063371    1.080429
            RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .4264966   .0885105    -4.11   0.000     .2839661    .6405672
            UNITY_GOVERNMENT |   .2765624   .0357333    -9.95   0.000     .2146908    .3562646
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





. * Table 1 Regression (3)

. probit SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC, vce(robust) nolog

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =        243
                                                  Wald chi2(22)   =     234.63
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -16.047037                 Pseudo R2       =     0.5438

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
          SEC_SECURITIZATION |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
               SUPRANATIONAL |   .4891568   .7005896     0.70   0.485    -.8839736    1.862287
             Majoritarian_IG |   .1313262   .5669262     0.23   0.817    -.9798287    1.242481
                    SECURITY |   1.720038   .6037323     2.85   0.004     .5367449    2.903332
                  MINORITIES |   1.825516   .6545688     2.79   0.005     .5425848    3.108447
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |   .6688743   .3183596     2.10   0.036     .0449009    1.292848
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |  -.1426772   .0853303    -1.67   0.095    -.3099216    .0245671
                 NUMBER_ARAB |  -.5727924   .2909518    -1.97   0.049    -1.143047   -.0025373
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |  -.0148472   .1068809    -0.14   0.890    -.2243299    .1946354
                   UN_TREATY |  -.7068979   .5557413    -1.27   0.203    -1.796131    .3823351
               US_MEMBERSHIP |  -1.149722   .6028738    -1.91   0.057    -2.331332    .0318893
        VotingSimilarityInUN |  -5.697152   1.792472    -3.18   0.001    -9.210332   -2.183972
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity |  -3.785055   .9537035    -3.97   0.000     -5.65428   -1.915831
              NUMBER_MEMBERS |   .0659487   .0247077     2.67   0.008     .0175225    .1143748
                         GDP |  -13.62634   9.099359    -1.50   0.134    -31.46075    4.208079
                      Income |    1.84746   1.037115     1.78   0.075    -.1852478    3.880169
                   RULEofLAW |  -.5613851   .7423134    -0.76   0.449    -2.016293    .8935224
                        GINI |    .008866   .0422796     0.21   0.834    -.0740004    .0917324
            RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   4.737448   .9463886     5.01   0.000      2.88256    6.592335
                      NEW_IO |  -1.313174   .8090757    -1.62   0.105    -2.898933    .2725855
               IO_POPULATION |  -.0575087   .0566689    -1.01   0.310    -.1685777    .0535602
                  IO_ENGLISH |   1.065806   .6593446     1.62   0.106    -.2264854    2.358098
                      IO_NYC |   .0613241   1.054194     0.06   0.954    -2.004859    2.127507
                       _cons |   .1733197   1.901087     0.09   0.927    -3.552742    3.899382
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 60 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. * Calculating the probability of an act of secondary securitization based on Regression (3). We regard this calculated probability of secondary securitization as encapsulating the objective element that drives the performance or non-performance of secondary securitization acts as we documented them.

. predict Instr_SEC_SECURITIZATION
(option pr assumed; Pr(SEC_SECURITIZATION))

. gen Resid_SEC_SECURITIZATION = SEC_SECURITIZATION - Instr_SEC_SECURITIZATION





. * Table 1 Regression (2)

. stcox Instr_SEC_SECURITIZATION Resid_SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT, vce(cluster SECURITY)

         failure _d:  Access88
   analysis time _t:  TimeToRatification

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -676.8202
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -611.60351
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -606.33345
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -606.26002
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -606.25989
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -606.25989

Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          239                Number of obs   =       239
No. of failures      =          136
Time at risk         =         2673
                                                   Wald chi2(1)    =      5.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -606.25989                Prob > chi2     =    0.0173

                                               (Std. Err. adjusted for 2 clusters in SECURITY)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
                          _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    Instr_SEC_SECURITIZATION |   2.141807   1.107399     1.47   0.141     .7774551    5.900451
    Resid_SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .5443707   .0072399   -45.73   0.000     .5303641    .5587472
               SUPRANATIONAL |   .8643315   .0033262   -37.89   0.000     .8578369    .8708753
             Majoritarian_IG |   1.212742   .0658069     3.55   0.000     1.090384    1.348829
                    SECURITY |   .8844153   .0464792    -2.34   0.019     .7978525    .9803698
                  MINORITIES |   1.260056   .1858715     1.57   0.117     .9436887    1.682484
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |   1.207716   .1102633     2.07   0.039     1.009836    1.444371
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .9697062   .0097419    -3.06   0.002     .9507992    .9889892
                 NUMBER_ARAB |   .9996002   .0997145    -0.00   0.997     .8220823    1.215451
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |   1.166543   .0285705     6.29   0.000     1.111869    1.223906
                   UN_TREATY |   1.120032   .0115763    10.97   0.000     1.097571    1.142953
               US_MEMBERSHIP |   1.593491    .020936    35.46   0.000     1.552981    1.635058
        VotingSimilarityInUN |   .0448706   .0585006    -2.38   0.017      .003485    .5777324
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity |   .5782288   .0777642    -4.07   0.000     .4442468    .7526189
              NUMBER_MEMBERS |   .9703133   .0100619    -2.91   0.004     .9507914    .9902361
                         GDP |   .6354225   .1368091    -2.11   0.035      .416673    .9690135
                      Income |   .3621243   .0034406  -106.91   0.000     .3554432    .3689309
                   RULEofLAW |    1.11036   .1539814     0.75   0.450     .8460999    1.457155
                        GINI |   1.073851   .0034164    22.40   0.000     1.067176    1.080568
            RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .3951976   .0548637    -6.69   0.000     .3010546      .51878
            UNITY_GOVERNMENT |   .2689951   .0429484    -8.22   0.000     .1967159    .3678319
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





. * Reproducing Figure 2

. * STATA does not produce graphs of predicted rates of failure (ratification in our case). Rather, the following graph is of predicted rates of survival (non-ratification), and is not presented in the paper. The data points of this graph are saved in file "Survival rates with and without secondary securitization.dta" in order to calculate failure rates and manualy produce a graph of predicted rates of failure (ratification)

. stcurve, survival at1( Resid_SEC_SECURITIZATION=0 ) at2( Resid_SEC_SECURITIZATION=1 ) outfile("C:\[enter yout directory path here]\Survival rates with and without secondary securitization.dta" , replace) yscale(reverse)

. * To reproduce Figure 2, open file "Survival rates with and without secondary securitization.dta", and save as file "Survival rates with and without secondary securitization short.dta". Open the data editor window, and delete all the recurring lines (leaving only one line per year) . There are no lines for the years 28, 33, 34, 37, 39, 40 and 42. Type them in, for each copying values from the previous year. Sort the data by the years. The generate the failure rates. Command: gen fail2=1-surv2. Commadn: gen fail3=1-surv3. Then produce Figure 2 with the Command: twoway (rbar fail2 fail3 _t).





. * Appendix 1 Regression (A1.1)

. probit ArchivedDisc RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC OPEN, vce(robust) nolog

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =        243
                                                  Wald chi2(25)   =      57.06
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0003
Log pseudolikelihood =  -102.4977                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2737

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
                ArchivedDisc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                RATIFICATION |   .3057663   .3119356     0.98   0.327    -.3056163     .917149
               SUPRANATIONAL |   .5936182    .363892     1.63   0.103    -.1195969    1.306833
             Majoritarian_IG |   .0187498   .2610207     0.07   0.943    -.4928413     .530341
                    SECURITY |   .7059436   .3375482     2.09   0.036     .0443613    1.367526
                  MINORITIES |   1.370848   .3905765     3.51   0.000     .6053317    2.136364
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |  -.0289771   .1437708    -0.20   0.840    -.3107627    .2528085
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |  -.0613671   .0532038    -1.15   0.249    -.1656446    .0429103
                 NUMBER_ARAB |  -.0336943   .0878253    -0.38   0.701    -.2058286    .1384401
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |  -.0661383   .0535314    -1.24   0.217    -.1710579    .0387813
                   UN_TREATY |   .0506818   .2530166     0.20   0.841    -.4452216    .5465852
               US_MEMBERSHIP |   .0353078    .261727     0.13   0.893    -.4776678    .5482833
        VotingSimilarityInUN |  -1.852125   1.247806    -1.48   0.138    -4.297779    .5935292
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity |  -.2821605     .47485    -0.59   0.552    -1.212849    .6485284
              NUMBER_MEMBERS |   .0211986   .0104312     2.03   0.042     .0007538    .0416435
                         GDP |  -.1829997   .1959181    -0.93   0.350    -.5669922    .2009928
                      Income |  -.1739699   .2730696    -0.64   0.524    -.7091764    .3612367
                   RULEofLAW |   .1045339   .4516295     0.23   0.817    -.7806437    .9897115
                        GINI |   .0329829    .022589     1.46   0.144    -.0112907    .0772566
            RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .0036301   .4509247     0.01   0.994    -.8801661    .8874263
            UNITY_GOVERNMENT |  -1.721356   .8449317    -2.04   0.042    -3.377392   -.0653205
                      NEW_IO |    .758997   .2633592     2.88   0.004     .2428225    1.275172
               IO_POPULATION |  -.0897181   .0412629    -2.17   0.030    -.1705918   -.0088443
                  IO_ENGLISH |   1.033296   .3956809     2.61   0.009     .2577758    1.808817
                      IO_NYC |  -.1435391   .6101082    -0.24   0.814    -1.339329    1.052251
                        OPEN |   .0210261   .0182375     1.15   0.249    -.0147187     .056771
                       _cons |  -42.28912   35.65519    -1.19   0.236     -112.172    27.59376
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





. * Appendix 1 Regression (A1.2)

. * Identifying the restricted model

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC OPEN
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      2.18    1.48    0.4581      0.5419
SUPRANATIONAL      1.66    1.29    0.6013      0.3987
Majoritarian_IG      1.60    1.26    0.6258      0.3742
  SECURITY      1.26    1.12    0.7963      0.2037
MINORITIES      1.27    1.13    0.7849      0.2151
NUMBER_ENEMIES      4.55    2.13    0.2198      0.7802
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      3.87    1.97    0.2587      0.7413
NUMBER_ARAB     10.19    3.19    0.0981      0.9019
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      4.91    2.22    0.2036      0.7964
 UN_TREATY      1.58    1.26    0.6326      0.3674
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.73    1.31    0.5790      0.4210
VotingSimilarityInUN      2.07    1.44    0.4834      0.5166
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      3.21    1.79    0.3115      0.6885
NUMBER_MEMBERS      7.12    2.67    0.1405      0.8595
       GDP      1.47    1.21    0.6815      0.3185
    Income      4.02    2.00    0.2490      0.7510
 RULEofLAW      3.39    1.84    0.2953      0.7047
      GINI      2.18    1.48    0.4596      0.5404
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      3.94    1.98    0.2541      0.7459
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      4.43    2.10    0.2259      0.7741
    NEW_IO      1.49    1.22    0.6717      0.3283
IO_POPULATION      4.52    2.13    0.2212      0.7788
IO_ENGLISH      3.14    1.77    0.3184      0.6816
    IO_NYC      3.26    1.81    0.3066      0.6934
      OPEN      4.71    2.17    0.2121      0.7879
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      3.35

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    13.0065          1.0000
    2     1.9238          2.6001
    3     1.5459          2.9006
    4     1.3822          3.0676
    5     1.2793          3.1886
    6     1.1186          3.4099
    7     1.0239          3.5640
    8     0.8477          3.9170
    9     0.6731          4.3957
    10     0.5971          4.6671
    11     0.4440          5.4121
    12     0.4125          5.6153
    13     0.3624          5.9904
    14     0.2790          6.8277
    15     0.2465          7.2636
    16     0.2109          7.8522
    17     0.1636          8.9162
    18     0.1361          9.7740
    19     0.1230         10.2833
    20     0.0950         11.7018
    21     0.0481         16.4463
    22     0.0437         17.2503
    23     0.0206         25.1571
    24     0.0108         34.7121
    25     0.0055         48.5548
    26     0.0000       1780.5359
---------------------------------
 Condition Number      1780.5359 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0000

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: NUMBER_ARAB

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC OPEN
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      2.18    1.48    0.4593      0.5407
SUPRANATIONAL      1.66    1.29    0.6018      0.3982
Majoritarian_IG      1.60    1.26    0.6259      0.3741
  SECURITY      1.26    1.12    0.7964      0.2036
MINORITIES      1.26    1.12    0.7962      0.2038
NUMBER_ENEMIES      2.16    1.47    0.4639      0.5361
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      3.85    1.96    0.2598      0.7402
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      2.93    1.71    0.3415      0.6585
 UN_TREATY      1.54    1.24    0.6487      0.3513
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.66    1.29    0.6014      0.3986
VotingSimilarityInUN      2.07    1.44    0.4834      0.5166
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      3.21    1.79    0.3115      0.6885
NUMBER_MEMBERS      6.72    2.59    0.1488      0.8512
       GDP      1.46    1.21    0.6851      0.3149
    Income      3.98    1.99    0.2514      0.7486
 RULEofLAW      3.38    1.84    0.2954      0.7046
      GINI      2.16    1.47    0.4625      0.5375
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      3.93    1.98    0.2545      0.7455
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      4.43    2.10    0.2260      0.7740
    NEW_IO      1.48    1.22    0.6746      0.3254
IO_POPULATION      4.46    2.11    0.2240      0.7760
IO_ENGLISH      3.14    1.77    0.3187      0.6813
    IO_NYC      3.21    1.79    0.3113      0.6887
      OPEN      4.69    2.17    0.2133      0.7867
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.85

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    12.4444          1.0000
    2     1.8448          2.5973
    3     1.4660          2.9135
    4     1.3246          3.0652
    5     1.2100          3.2070
    6     1.1176          3.3369
    7     0.9952          3.5361
    8     0.8186          3.8989
    9     0.6727          4.3009
    10     0.5738          4.6570
    11     0.4411          5.3115
    12     0.4028          5.5581
    13     0.3549          5.9214
    14     0.2735          6.7450
    15     0.2464          7.1065
    16     0.2109          7.6817
    17     0.1635          8.7233
    18     0.1361          9.5605
    19     0.1229         10.0609
    20     0.0949         11.4494
    21     0.0481         16.0916
    22     0.0206         24.5552
    23     0.0109         33.8375
    24     0.0055         47.4938
    25     0.0000       1737.0543
---------------------------------
 Condition Number      1737.0543 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0000

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: NUMBER_MEMBERS

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC OPEN
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      2.16    1.47    0.4635      0.5365
SUPRANATIONAL      1.65    1.29    0.6044      0.3956
Majoritarian_IG      1.60    1.26    0.6260      0.3740
  SECURITY      1.25    1.12    0.7982      0.2018
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.7983      0.2017
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.58    1.26    0.6310      0.3690
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.18    1.48    0.4591      0.5409
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      2.08    1.44    0.4815      0.5185
 UN_TREATY      1.54    1.24    0.6492      0.3508
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.59    1.26    0.6278      0.3722
VotingSimilarityInUN      2.01    1.42    0.4978      0.5022
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      3.21    1.79    0.3117      0.6883
       GDP      1.46    1.21    0.6862      0.3138
    Income      3.82    1.95    0.2619      0.7381
 RULEofLAW      3.38    1.84    0.2956      0.7044
      GINI      2.08    1.44    0.4812      0.5188
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      3.91    1.98    0.2558      0.7442
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      4.34    2.08    0.2306      0.7694
    NEW_IO      1.48    1.22    0.6754      0.3246
IO_POPULATION      4.46    2.11    0.2240      0.7760
IO_ENGLISH      3.13    1.77    0.3198      0.6802
    IO_NYC      3.21    1.79    0.3114      0.6886
      OPEN      4.60    2.14    0.2174      0.7826
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.52

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    11.7204          1.0000
    2     1.8211          2.5369
    3     1.4307          2.8622
    4     1.2847          3.0204
    5     1.1708          3.1639
    6     1.1043          3.2579
    7     0.9725          3.4716
    8     0.7996          3.8285
    9     0.6704          4.1812
    10     0.5687          4.5396
    11     0.4408          5.1563
    12     0.4022          5.3985
    13     0.3549          5.7470
    14     0.2668          6.6281
    15     0.2463          6.8979
    16     0.2044          7.5719
    17     0.1616          8.5160
    18     0.1359          9.2878
    19     0.1134         10.1654
    20     0.0929         11.2329
    21     0.0206         23.8298
    22     0.0112         32.3657
    23     0.0057         45.3601
    24     0.0000       1670.3274
---------------------------------
 Condition Number      1670.3274 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0000

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: OPEN

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      2.12    1.46    0.4707      0.5293
SUPRANATIONAL      1.64    1.28    0.6087      0.3913
Majoritarian_IG      1.59    1.26    0.6304      0.3696
  SECURITY      1.18    1.09    0.8487      0.1513
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.8000      0.2000
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.58    1.26    0.6347      0.3653
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.17    1.47    0.4605      0.5395
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      2.08    1.44    0.4815      0.5185
 UN_TREATY      1.54    1.24    0.6493      0.3507
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.57    1.25    0.6385      0.3615
VotingSimilarityInUN      2.01    1.42    0.4978      0.5022
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      3.08    1.75    0.3250      0.6750
       GDP      1.44    1.20    0.6937      0.3063
    Income      3.45    1.86    0.2902      0.7098
 RULEofLAW      3.27    1.81    0.3057      0.6943
      GINI      2.08    1.44    0.4818      0.5182
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.97    1.72    0.3365      0.6635
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      2.57    1.60    0.3897      0.6103
    NEW_IO      1.46    1.21    0.6859      0.3141
IO_POPULATION      4.46    2.11    0.2242      0.7758
IO_ENGLISH      3.13    1.77    0.3198      0.6802
    IO_NYC      3.21    1.79    0.3114      0.6886
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.26

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    10.8136          1.0000
    2     1.7699          2.4718
    3     1.4306          2.7493
    4     1.2838          2.9023
    5     1.1616          3.0511
    6     1.1010          3.1340
    7     0.9684          3.3415
    8     0.7992          3.6783
    9     0.6703          4.0165
    10     0.5679          4.3636
    11     0.4375          4.9714
    12     0.3999          5.2000
    13     0.3547          5.5216
    14     0.2659          6.3772
    15     0.2403          6.7086
    16     0.2043          7.2749
    17     0.1606          8.2051
    18     0.1357          8.9254
    19     0.1096          9.9326
    20     0.0897         10.9814
    21     0.0206         22.9094
    22     0.0111         31.2532
    23     0.0037         54.0840
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        54.0840 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0001

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: IO_POPULATION

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      2.12    1.46    0.4723      0.5277
SUPRANATIONAL      1.64    1.28    0.6091      0.3909
Majoritarian_IG      1.58    1.26    0.6310      0.3690
  SECURITY      1.18    1.09    0.8488      0.1512
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.8011      0.1989
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.57    1.25    0.6369      0.3631
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.15    1.47    0.4658      0.5342
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.94    1.39    0.5150      0.4850
 UN_TREATY      1.54    1.24    0.6505      0.3495
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.55    1.25    0.6444      0.3556
VotingSimilarityInUN      2.00    1.42    0.4991      0.5009
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      3.07    1.75    0.3254      0.6746
       GDP      1.44    1.20    0.6939      0.3061
    Income      3.34    1.83    0.2990      0.7010
 RULEofLAW      3.23    1.80    0.3091      0.6909
      GINI      2.05    1.43    0.4868      0.5132
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.97    1.72    0.3366      0.6634
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      2.55    1.60    0.3915      0.6085
    NEW_IO      1.39    1.18    0.7196      0.2804
IO_ENGLISH      1.99    1.41    0.5026      0.4974
    IO_NYC      2.22    1.49    0.4507      0.5493
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.04

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    10.3287          1.0000
    2     1.5225          2.6046
    3     1.3789          2.7368
    4     1.2796          2.8411
    5     1.1582          2.9863
    6     1.0664          3.1121
    7     0.9684          3.2658
    8     0.7702          3.6621
    9     0.6695          3.9278
    10     0.5677          4.2653
    11     0.4346          4.8752
    12     0.3818          5.2014
    13     0.3536          5.4043
    14     0.2501          6.4258
    15     0.2400          6.5605
    16     0.2029          7.1346
    17     0.1603          8.0281
    18     0.1303          8.9042
    19     0.1001         10.1575
    20     0.0214         21.9879
    21     0.0111         30.4758
    22     0.0037         52.8564
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        52.8564 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0006

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: Income

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      1.97    1.40    0.5067      0.4933
SUPRANATIONAL      1.62    1.27    0.6156      0.3844
Majoritarian_IG      1.58    1.26    0.6327      0.3673
  SECURITY      1.17    1.08    0.8525      0.1475
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.8015      0.1985
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.50    1.22    0.6685      0.3315
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.14    1.46    0.4673      0.5327
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.80    1.34    0.5542      0.4458
 UN_TREATY      1.49    1.22    0.6703      0.3297
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.53    1.24    0.6543      0.3457
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.99    1.41    0.5017      0.4983
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.85    1.69    0.3510      0.6490
       GDP      1.44    1.20    0.6953      0.3047
 RULEofLAW      2.38    1.54    0.4204      0.5796
      GINI      1.90    1.38    0.5262      0.4738
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.96    1.72    0.3383      0.6617
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      2.55    1.60    0.3922      0.6078
    NEW_IO      1.39    1.18    0.7201      0.2799
IO_ENGLISH      1.99    1.41    0.5027      0.4973
    IO_NYC      2.22    1.49    0.4514      0.5486
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.89

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     9.5652          1.0000
    2     1.5155          2.5123
    3     1.3473          2.6645
    4     1.2648          2.7500
    5     1.1575          2.8746
    6     1.0623          3.0007
    7     0.9657          3.1471
    8     0.7697          3.5253
    9     0.6695          3.7799
    10     0.5560          4.1478
    11     0.4337          4.6964
    12     0.3723          5.0684
    13     0.3434          5.2775
    14     0.2469          6.2240
    15     0.2384          6.3339
    16     0.1787          7.3158
    17     0.1342          8.4431
    18     0.1227          8.8283
    19     0.0412         15.2441
    20     0.0112         29.1912
    21     0.0038         50.2942
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        50.2942 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0019

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: RIGHT_GOVERNMENT

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP RULEofLAW GINI UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      1.88    1.37    0.5327      0.4673
SUPRANATIONAL      1.59    1.26    0.6273      0.3727
Majoritarian_IG      1.57    1.25    0.6372      0.3628
  SECURITY      1.17    1.08    0.8525      0.1475
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.8027      0.1973
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.49    1.22    0.6706      0.3294
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.14    1.46    0.4673      0.5327
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.75    1.32    0.5701      0.4299
 UN_TREATY      1.49    1.22    0.6705      0.3295
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.50    1.22    0.6672      0.3328
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.83    1.35    0.5464      0.4536
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      1.85    1.36    0.5414      0.4586
       GDP      1.44    1.20    0.6957      0.3043
 RULEofLAW      2.32    1.52    0.4306      0.5694
      GINI      1.90    1.38    0.5274      0.4726
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      1.83    1.35    0.5462      0.4538
    NEW_IO      1.36    1.16    0.7368      0.2632
IO_ENGLISH      1.99    1.41    0.5035      0.4965
    IO_NYC      2.20    1.48    0.4543      0.5457
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.71

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     9.2314          1.0000
    2     1.4718          2.5044
    3     1.2668          2.6995
    4     1.2584          2.7085
    5     1.0654          2.9436
    6     1.0368          2.9839
    7     0.7905          3.4172
    8     0.7277          3.5618
    9     0.6490          3.7716
    10     0.5415          4.1288
    11     0.4333          4.6160
    12     0.3719          4.9824
    13     0.3315          5.2768
    14     0.2464          6.1213
    15     0.2293          6.3444
    16     0.1682          7.4090
    17     0.1235          8.6474
    18     0.0412         14.9600
    19     0.0114         28.4703
    20     0.0042         47.0890
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        47.0890 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0055

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: RULEofLAW

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP GINI UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      1.87    1.37    0.5353      0.4647
SUPRANATIONAL      1.59    1.26    0.6276      0.3724
Majoritarian_IG      1.57    1.25    0.6372      0.3628
  SECURITY      1.17    1.08    0.8525      0.1475
MINORITIES      1.23    1.11    0.8098      0.1902
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.49    1.22    0.6706      0.3294
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.09    1.45    0.4782      0.5218
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.75    1.32    0.5711      0.4289
 UN_TREATY      1.47    1.21    0.6790      0.3210
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.49    1.22    0.6713      0.3287
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.63    1.27    0.6152      0.3848
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      1.85    1.36    0.5416      0.4584
       GDP      1.38    1.17    0.7247      0.2753
      GINI      1.42    1.19    0.7029      0.2971
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      1.68    1.30    0.5952      0.4048
    NEW_IO      1.36    1.16    0.7374      0.2626
IO_ENGLISH      1.98    1.41    0.5048      0.4952
    IO_NYC      2.20    1.48    0.4543      0.5457
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.62

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     8.3157          1.0000
    2     1.4519          2.3932
    3     1.2638          2.5652
    4     1.2571          2.5719
    5     1.0640          2.7956
    6     1.0324          2.8380
    7     0.7904          3.2435
    8     0.7267          3.3827
    9     0.6467          3.5858
    10     0.5407          3.9218
    11     0.4325          4.3849
    12     0.3704          4.7383
    13     0.3291          5.0265
    14     0.2446          5.8303
    15     0.2268          6.0550
    16     0.1681          7.0333
    17     0.1139          8.5452
    18     0.0203         20.2150
    19     0.0046         42.6115
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        42.6115 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0129

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: IO_NYC

. collin RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP GINI UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
RATIFICATION      1.79    1.34    0.5578      0.4422
SUPRANATIONAL      1.55    1.25    0.6451      0.3549
Majoritarian_IG      1.48    1.22    0.6751      0.3249
  SECURITY      1.17    1.08    0.8527      0.1473
MINORITIES      1.23    1.11    0.8126      0.1874
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.49    1.22    0.6713      0.3287
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      1.89    1.38    0.5280      0.4720
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.74    1.32    0.5739      0.4261
 UN_TREATY      1.34    1.16    0.7439      0.2561
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.49    1.22    0.6727      0.3273
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.62    1.27    0.6171      0.3829
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      1.83    1.35    0.5465      0.4535
       GDP      1.34    1.16    0.7490      0.2510
      GINI      1.42    1.19    0.7031      0.2969
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      1.65    1.29    0.6043      0.3957
    NEW_IO      1.36    1.16    0.7380      0.2620
IO_ENGLISH      1.32    1.15    0.7594      0.2406
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.51

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     8.1176          1.0000
    2     1.3261          2.4742
    3     1.2625          2.5356
    4     1.1417          2.6664
    5     1.0455          2.7865
    6     0.8680          3.0580
    7     0.7501          3.2896
    8     0.7099          3.3816
    9     0.6404          3.5604
    10     0.5367          3.8892
    11     0.3741          4.6581
    12     0.3367          4.9102
    13     0.3010          5.1935
    14     0.2381          5.8393
    15     0.2051          6.2911
    16     0.1217          8.1682
    17     0.0204         19.9626
    18     0.0046         42.0744
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        42.0744 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0283

. probit ArchivedDisc RATIFICATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity  GDP GINI UNITY_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH, vce(robust) nolog

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =        243
                                                  Wald chi2(17)   =      49.75
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -109.32788                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2253

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
                ArchivedDisc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                RATIFICATION |   .3774347   .2866949     1.32   0.188    -.1844769    .9393463
               SUPRANATIONAL |   .5479302   .3408544     1.61   0.108    -.1201321    1.215992
             Majoritarian_IG |   .0519877   .2426487     0.21   0.830     -.423595    .5275705
                    SECURITY |   .7167925   .3222407     2.22   0.026     .0852123    1.348373
                  MINORITIES |   1.270997   .3551945     3.58   0.000     .5748282    1.967165
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |     .03816   .0772674     0.49   0.621    -.1132813    .1896014
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |  -.0030017   .0390519    -0.08   0.939     -.079542    .0735386
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |  -.0513613   .0342333    -1.50   0.134    -.1184574    .0157348
                   UN_TREATY |  -.0515278   .2300988    -0.22   0.823    -.5025132    .3994576
               US_MEMBERSHIP |   .2841923   .2482534     1.14   0.252    -.2023755      .77076
        VotingSimilarityInUN |  -.9332931   1.107292    -0.84   0.399    -3.103546     1.23696
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity |   -.079782     .29543    -0.27   0.787    -.6588141    .4992502
                         GDP |  -.2386274   .2004671    -1.19   0.234    -.6315357     .154281
                        GINI |   .0231047   .0188397     1.23   0.220    -.0138204    .0600298
            UNITY_GOVERNMENT |  -1.272425   .5733615    -2.22   0.026    -2.396193   -.1486568
                      NEW_IO |   .5950153   .2434294     2.44   0.015     .1179024    1.072128
                  IO_ENGLISH |   .2427725   .2519702     0.96   0.335    -.2510799     .736625
                       _cons |  -1.408802   1.062742    -1.33   0.185    -3.491739    .6741343
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





. * Appendix 4 Regression A4.1

. * Calculating the probability of an act of secondary securitization, now restricted to the 65 treaties for we found documnetation of ratification discussions. We regard this calculated probability of secondary securitization as encapsulating the objective element that drives the performance or non-performance of secondary securitization acts as we documented them.

. probit SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC if ArchivedDisc==1, vce(robust) nolog

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =         65
                                                  Wald chi2(0)    =          .
                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .
Log pseudolikelihood =          0                 Pseudo R2       =     1.0000

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
          SEC_SECURITIZATION |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
               SUPRANATIONAL |   239.3435          .        .       .            .           .
             Majoritarian_IG |  -120.7058          .        .       .            .           .
                    SECURITY |   384.6127          .        .       .            .           .
                  MINORITIES |   207.5793          .        .       .            .           .
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |   180.7676          .        .       .            .           .
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |  -92.26925          .        .       .            .           .
                 NUMBER_ARAB |  -148.1278          .        .       .            .           .
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |   59.59683          .        .       .            .           .
                   UN_TREATY |   17.49242          .        .       .            .           .
               US_MEMBERSHIP |  -330.0583          .        .       .            .           .
        VotingSimilarityInUN |  -3635.668          .        .       .            .           .
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity |  -319.7577          .        .       .            .           .
              NUMBER_MEMBERS |   31.90036          .        .       .            .           .
                         GDP |  -404.8251          .        .       .            .           .
                      Income |   420.9839          .        .       .            .           .
                   RULEofLAW |  -702.0795          .        .       .            .           .
                        GINI |  -34.66643          .        .       .            .           .
            RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   489.0767          .        .       .            .           .
                      NEW_IO |  -820.1884          .        .       .            .           .
               IO_POPULATION |    13.2724          .        .       .            .           .
                  IO_ENGLISH |   44.37855          .        .       .            .           .
                      IO_NYC |  -718.2412          .        .       .            .           .
                       _cons |   3373.231          .        .       .            .           .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 57 failures and 8 successes completely determined.

. predict Instr65_SEC_SECURITIZATION
(option pr assumed; Pr(SEC_SECURITIZATION))

. * Calculating the residual, which is regarded as encapsulating the non-objective element that drives the performance or non-performance of the documented acts of secondary securitization, and a purer measure of secondary securitization.

. gen Resid65_SEC_SECURITIZATION = SEC_SECURITIZATION - Instr65_SEC_SECURITIZATION

. stcox Instr65_SEC_SECURITIZATION Resid65_SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT, vce(cluster SECURITY)

         failure _d:  Access88
   analysis time _t:  TimeToRatification

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -676.8202
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -611.63572
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.08448
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03574
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03565
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03565
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -607.03565

Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          239                Number of obs   =       239
No. of failures      =          136
Time at risk         =         2673
                                                   Wald chi2(1)    =      9.61
Log pseudolikelihood =   -607.03565                Prob > chi2     =    0.0019

                                               (Std. Err. adjusted for 2 clusters in SECURITY)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
                          _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  Instr65_SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .6506266   .1467396    -1.91   0.057     .4181724    1.012298
  Resid65_SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .6483199   .0799287    -3.52   0.000     .5091528    .8255255
               SUPRANATIONAL |   .9551987   .1128151    -0.39   0.698     .7578118    1.203999
             Majoritarian_IG |   1.238908   .0747433     3.55   0.000     1.100744    1.394416
                    SECURITY |    1.00677    .142943     0.05   0.962     .7622107    1.329797
                  MINORITIES |   1.483855   .0003601  1626.29   0.000      1.48315    1.484561
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |   1.230308   .0775627     3.29   0.001     1.087304    1.392119
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .9635769   .0097897    -3.65   0.000     .9445792    .9829567
                 NUMBER_ARAB |   .9887344   .0719372    -0.16   0.876     .8573318    1.140277
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |   1.149703   .0336746     4.76   0.000     1.085561    1.217636
                   UN_TREATY |   1.074414   .0618953     1.25   0.213     .9596994    1.202841
               US_MEMBERSHIP |   1.563429   .0916544     7.62   0.000     1.393726    1.753795
        VotingSimilarityInUN |   .0374815   .0397011    -3.10   0.002     .0047012    .2988308
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity |   .5685892   .0865278    -3.71   0.000     .4219519    .7661862
              NUMBER_MEMBERS |   .9738542   .0062405    -4.13   0.000     .9616996    .9861624
                         GDP |   .6337187   .1365846    -2.12   0.034     .4153728    .9668406
                      Income |   .3686092   .0069951   -52.59   0.000     .3551509    .3825776
                   RULEofLAW |   1.163076   .2216997     0.79   0.428     .8004907    1.689896
                        GINI |   1.071887   .0049388    15.07   0.000      1.06225     1.08161
            RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .4262444   .0956203    -3.80   0.000      .274604    .6616228
            UNITY_GOVERNMENT |   .2763492   .0296155   -12.00   0.000     .2239945    .3409408
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





. * Appendix 4 - Identifying the restricted model for Regressions (A4.2)-(A4.4)

. collin SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SEC_SECURITIZATION      1.25    1.12    0.8027      0.1973
SUPRANATIONAL      1.59    1.26    0.6302      0.3698
Majoritarian_IG      1.46    1.21    0.6840      0.3160
  SECURITY      1.20    1.10    0.8328      0.1672
MINORITIES      1.29    1.14    0.7744      0.2256
NUMBER_ENEMIES      4.34    2.08    0.2302      0.7698
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      3.63    1.91    0.2754      0.7246
NUMBER_ARAB      9.76    3.12    0.1024      0.8976
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      4.96    2.23    0.2015      0.7985
 UN_TREATY      1.32    1.15    0.7601      0.2399
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.40    1.18    0.7133      0.2867
VotingSimilarityInUN      2.02    1.42    0.4943      0.5057
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.87    1.69    0.3483      0.6517
NUMBER_MEMBERS      7.07    2.66    0.1414      0.8586
       GDP      1.39    1.18    0.7215      0.2785
    Income      3.30    1.82    0.3033      0.6967
 RULEofLAW      3.22    1.79    0.3108      0.6892
      GINI      2.09    1.44    0.4791      0.5209
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.77    1.66    0.3613      0.6387
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      2.18    1.48    0.4587      0.5413
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.96

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    10.3728          1.0000
    2     1.6906          2.4770
    3     1.4058          2.7163
    4     1.2174          2.9190
    5     1.1054          3.0633
    6     0.9386          3.3243
    7     0.8793          3.4347
    8     0.6559          3.9766
    9     0.5765          4.2418
    10     0.5351          4.4029
    11     0.3744          5.2633
    12     0.3323          5.5873
    13     0.2763          6.1274
    14     0.1991          7.2185
    15     0.1694          7.8248
    16     0.1398          8.6129
    17     0.0486         14.6031
    18     0.0451         15.1573
    19     0.0226         21.4081
    20     0.0111         30.6212
    21     0.0037         52.8575
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        52.8575 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0001

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: NUMBER_ARAB

. collin SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SEC_SECURITIZATION      1.24    1.11    0.8050      0.1950
SUPRANATIONAL      1.59    1.26    0.6305      0.3695
Majoritarian_IG      1.46    1.21    0.6841      0.3159
  SECURITY      1.20    1.10    0.8328      0.1672
MINORITIES      1.28    1.13    0.7812      0.2188
NUMBER_ENEMIES      2.12    1.46    0.4718      0.5282
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      3.62    1.90    0.2760      0.7240
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      2.81    1.68    0.3556      0.6444
 UN_TREATY      1.28    1.13    0.7787      0.2213
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.36    1.17    0.7361      0.2639
VotingSimilarityInUN      2.02    1.42    0.4945      0.5055
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.87    1.69    0.3483      0.6517
NUMBER_MEMBERS      6.76    2.60    0.1479      0.8521
       GDP      1.38    1.17    0.7260      0.2740
    Income      3.27    1.81    0.3056      0.6944
 RULEofLAW      3.21    1.79    0.3111      0.6889
      GINI      2.08    1.44    0.4806      0.5194
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.74    1.66    0.3643      0.6357
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      2.18    1.48    0.4592      0.5408
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.34

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     9.7859          1.0000
    2     1.5323          2.5271
    3     1.3487          2.6936
    4     1.1857          2.8728
    5     1.0486          3.0549
    6     0.9335          3.2378
    7     0.8738          3.3465
    8     0.6521          3.8739
    9     0.5652          4.1609
    10     0.5158          4.3556
    11     0.3731          5.1212
    12     0.3200          5.5296
    13     0.2713          6.0059
    14     0.1990          7.0126
    15     0.1691          7.6065
    16     0.1397          8.3706
    17     0.0486         14.1867
    18     0.0226         20.7935
    19     0.0111         29.6821
    20     0.0037         51.3402
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        51.3402 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0005

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: NUMBER_MEMBERS

. collin SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SEC_SECURITIZATION      1.19    1.09    0.8404      0.1596
SUPRANATIONAL      1.58    1.26    0.6335      0.3665
Majoritarian_IG      1.46    1.21    0.6845      0.3155
  SECURITY      1.19    1.09    0.8425      0.1575
MINORITIES      1.28    1.13    0.7817      0.2183
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.60    1.26    0.6250      0.3750
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      1.86    1.36    0.5383      0.4617
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.92    1.39    0.5201      0.4799
 UN_TREATY      1.28    1.13    0.7805      0.2195
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.28    1.13    0.7783      0.2217
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.94    1.39    0.5160      0.4840
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.87    1.69    0.3485      0.6515
       GDP      1.38    1.17    0.7270      0.2730
    Income      3.09    1.76    0.3241      0.6759
 RULEofLAW      3.21    1.79    0.3111      0.6889
      GINI      2.00    1.42    0.4991      0.5009
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.74    1.66    0.3644      0.6356
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      2.15    1.46    0.4661      0.5339
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.89

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     9.0608          1.0000
    2     1.4800          2.4743
    3     1.2613          2.6802
    4     1.1846          2.7657
    5     1.0123          2.9917
    6     0.9224          3.1342
    7     0.8621          3.2420
    8     0.6521          3.7277
    9     0.5621          4.0147
    10     0.5148          4.1953
    11     0.3728          4.9302
    12     0.3192          5.3281
    13     0.2657          5.8392
    14     0.1979          6.7668
    15     0.1582          7.5687
    16     0.1358          8.1676
    17     0.0227         19.9678
    18     0.0113         28.3284
    19     0.0039         48.3710
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        48.3710 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0037

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: RULEofLAW

. collin SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP Income GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SEC_SECURITIZATION      1.19    1.09    0.8417      0.1583
SUPRANATIONAL      1.57    1.25    0.6383      0.3617
Majoritarian_IG      1.46    1.21    0.6849      0.3151
  SECURITY      1.18    1.09    0.8439      0.1561
MINORITIES      1.27    1.13    0.7890      0.2110
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.58    1.26    0.6335      0.3665
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      1.82    1.35    0.5509      0.4491
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.91    1.38    0.5233      0.4767
 UN_TREATY      1.23    1.11    0.8098      0.1902
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.28    1.13    0.7790      0.2210
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.77    1.33    0.5643      0.4357
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.84    1.69    0.3517      0.6483
       GDP      1.35    1.16    0.7423      0.2577
    Income      2.25    1.50    0.4451      0.5549
      GINI      1.84    1.36    0.5432      0.4568
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.72    1.65    0.3683      0.6317
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      1.89    1.38    0.5286      0.4714
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.71

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     8.1399          1.0000
    2     1.4799          2.3452
    3     1.2550          2.5468
    4     1.1819          2.6243
    5     0.9941          2.8615
    6     0.9171          2.9793
    7     0.8621          3.0728
    8     0.6499          3.5390
    9     0.5595          3.8141
    10     0.5138          3.9801
    11     0.3689          4.6972
    12     0.3101          5.1231
    13     0.2652          5.5405
    14     0.1918          6.5141
    15     0.1580          7.1769
    16     0.1338          7.7991
    17     0.0143         23.8617
    18     0.0045         42.3343
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        42.3343 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0119

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: MinisterWithCareerInSecurity

. collin SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP Income GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SEC_SECURITIZATION      1.19    1.09    0.8427      0.1573
SUPRANATIONAL      1.56    1.25    0.6395      0.3605
Majoritarian_IG      1.46    1.21    0.6867      0.3133
  SECURITY      1.17    1.08    0.8534      0.1466
MINORITIES      1.26    1.12    0.7923      0.2077
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.58    1.26    0.6335      0.3665
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      1.81    1.35    0.5511      0.4489
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.90    1.38    0.5263      0.4737
 UN_TREATY      1.23    1.11    0.8129      0.1871
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.28    1.13    0.7801      0.2199
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.66    1.29    0.6041      0.3959
       GDP      1.34    1.16    0.7481      0.2519
    Income      1.98    1.41    0.5044      0.4956
      GINI      1.75    1.32    0.5726      0.4274
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      1.49    1.22    0.6696      0.3304
UNITY_GOVERNMENT      1.74    1.32    0.5740      0.4260
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.53

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     7.5981          1.0000
    2     1.3902          2.3378
    3     1.2549          2.4606
    4     1.1144          2.6111
    5     0.9938          2.7651
    6     0.8774          2.9428
    7     0.8094          3.0639
    8     0.6292          3.4750
    9     0.5361          3.7647
    10     0.5117          3.8534
    11     0.3661          4.5559
    12     0.2926          5.0958
    13     0.2627          5.3780
    14     0.1913          6.3024
    15     0.1511          7.0916
    16     0.0164         21.4967
    17     0.0046         40.8087
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        40.8087 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0339





. * Appendix 4 Regression (A4.2)

. stcox SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP Income GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT, vce(cluster SECURITY)

         failure _d:  Access88
   analysis time _t:  TimeToRatification

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -676.8202
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -616.87377
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.53347
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.47047
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.47019
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.47019
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.47019

Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          239                Number of obs   =       239
No. of failures      =          136
Time at risk         =         2673
                                                   Wald chi2(1)    =    108.45
Log pseudolikelihood =   -612.47019                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 2 clusters in SECURITY)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     |               Robust
                  _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .5795047   .0965827    -3.27   0.001     .4180153    .8033815
       SUPRANATIONAL |   .9553724   .0601963    -0.72   0.469     .8443841    1.080949
     Majoritarian_IG |   1.278597   .1436757     2.19   0.029     1.025851    1.593614
            SECURITY |   1.045953   .0583604     0.81   0.421     .9376016    1.166826
          MINORITIES |   1.462413    .046308    12.00   0.000      1.37441    1.556051
      NUMBER_ENEMIES |   1.056914   .0472626     1.24   0.216     .9682239    1.153727
    NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .8803724   .0018912   -59.31   0.000     .8766734    .8840869
      NUMBER_ISLAMIC |     1.0858   .0089143    10.03   0.000     1.068468    1.103413
           UN_TREATY |   1.084152   .0139665     6.27   0.000     1.057121    1.111874
       US_MEMBERSHIP |   1.321663   .0913433     4.04   0.000     1.154229    1.513384
VotingSimilarityInUN |   .0098129   .0043572   -10.41   0.000       .00411    .0234292
                 GDP |   .6200741   .1668239    -1.78   0.076     .3659632     1.05063
              Income |   .3743575   .0208596   -17.63   0.000     .3356268    .4175577
                GINI |   1.079596   .0020548    40.24   0.000     1.075577    1.083631
    RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .2787108   .0208535   -17.08   0.000     .2406943    .3227319
    UNITY_GOVERNMENT |   .1991369   .0411098    -7.82   0.000     .1328708    .2984516
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





. * Appendix 4 - Identifying the restricted model for probit Regression (A4.5)

. * UNITY_GOVERNMENT is dropped because it is a perfect predictor of SEC_SECURITIZATION (no such acts were documented under a unity government).

. * NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC are added to the probit model. because it is a perfect predictor of SEC_SECURITIZATION (no such acts were documented under a unity government).

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ARAB NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.60    1.26    0.6251      0.3749
Majoritarian_IG      1.56    1.25    0.6394      0.3606
  SECURITY      1.17    1.08    0.8563      0.1437
MINORITIES      1.27    1.13    0.7875      0.2125
NUMBER_ENEMIES      4.46    2.11    0.2241      0.7759
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      3.84    1.96    0.2604      0.7396
NUMBER_ARAB     10.10    3.18    0.0990      0.9010
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      4.85    2.20    0.2063      0.7937
 UN_TREATY      1.56    1.25    0.6414      0.3586
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.61    1.27    0.6199      0.3801
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.42    1.19    0.7048      0.2952
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.79    1.67    0.3585      0.6415
NUMBER_MEMBERS      6.77    2.60    0.1478      0.8522
       GDP      1.39    1.18    0.7192      0.2808
    Income      3.29    1.81    0.3036      0.6964
 RULEofLAW      2.87    1.69    0.3487      0.6513
      GINI      2.12    1.46    0.4715      0.5285
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.16    1.47    0.4623      0.5377
    NEW_IO      1.45    1.20    0.6891      0.3109
IO_POPULATION      4.46    2.11    0.2241      0.7759
IO_ENGLISH      3.07    1.75    0.3261      0.6739
    IO_NYC      3.17    1.78    0.3154      0.6846
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      3.04

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    11.5518          1.0000
    2     1.7580          2.5634
    3     1.4905          2.7839
    4     1.3317          2.9452
    5     1.2071          3.0935
    6     0.9435          3.4990
    7     0.8475          3.6920
    8     0.7719          3.8685
    9     0.6050          4.3695
    10     0.4643          4.9878
    11     0.4250          5.2133
    12     0.3776          5.5311
    13     0.2759          6.4706
    14     0.2218          7.2173
    15     0.1809          7.9906
    16     0.1635          8.4068
    17     0.1508          8.7518
    18     0.1005         10.7224
    19     0.0503         15.1475
    20     0.0436         16.2714
    21     0.0215         23.2063
    22     0.0115         31.6430
    23     0.0057         45.1624
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        45.1624 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0000

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: NUMBER_ARAB

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity NUMBER_MEMBERS GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.60    1.26    0.6253      0.3747
Majoritarian_IG      1.56    1.25    0.6397      0.3603
  SECURITY      1.17    1.08    0.8563      0.1437
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.7984      0.2016
NUMBER_ENEMIES      2.07    1.44    0.4823      0.5177
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      3.82    1.96    0.2616      0.7384
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      2.80    1.67    0.3572      0.6428
 UN_TREATY      1.52    1.23    0.6595      0.3405
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.56    1.25    0.6405      0.3595
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.42    1.19    0.7053      0.2947
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.79    1.67    0.3585      0.6415
NUMBER_MEMBERS      6.42    2.53    0.1558      0.8442
       GDP      1.38    1.18    0.7223      0.2777
    Income      3.25    1.80    0.3076      0.6924
 RULEofLAW      2.87    1.69    0.3487      0.6513
      GINI      2.11    1.45    0.4740      0.5260
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.15    1.47    0.4654      0.5346
    NEW_IO      1.44    1.20    0.6929      0.3071
IO_POPULATION      4.41    2.10    0.2270      0.7730
IO_ENGLISH      3.06    1.75    0.3267      0.6733
    IO_NYC      3.11    1.76    0.3211      0.6789
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.47

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    10.9613          1.0000
    2     1.7072          2.5339
    3     1.3852          2.8131
    4     1.3195          2.8823
    5     1.0905          3.1705
    6     0.9411          3.4128
    7     0.8191          3.6582
    8     0.7710          3.7705
    9     0.5861          4.3247
    10     0.4596          4.8835
    11     0.4063          5.1938
    12     0.3775          5.3885
    13     0.2696          6.3759
    14     0.2218          7.0306
    15     0.1805          7.7923
    16     0.1634          8.1913
    17     0.1508          8.5254
    18     0.1004         10.4488
    19     0.0503         14.7572
    20     0.0215         22.5763
    21     0.0116         30.7587
    22     0.0057         43.9777
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        43.9777 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0001

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: NUMBER_MEMBERS

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_POPULATION IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.59    1.26    0.6282      0.3718
Majoritarian_IG      1.56    1.25    0.6398      0.3602
  SECURITY      1.16    1.08    0.8599      0.1401
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.8015      0.1985
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.54    1.24    0.6473      0.3527
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.14    1.46    0.4665      0.5335
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      2.00    1.42    0.4989      0.5011
 UN_TREATY      1.51    1.23    0.6602      0.3398
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.50    1.22    0.6680      0.3320
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.39    1.18    0.7211      0.2789
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.78    1.67    0.3594      0.6406
       GDP      1.38    1.18    0.7230      0.2770
    Income      3.11    1.76    0.3220      0.6780
 RULEofLAW      2.86    1.69    0.3496      0.6504
      GINI      2.04    1.43    0.4901      0.5099
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.15    1.47    0.4659      0.5341
    NEW_IO      1.44    1.20    0.6938      0.3062
IO_POPULATION      4.40    2.10    0.2270      0.7730
IO_ENGLISH      3.06    1.75    0.3271      0.6729
    IO_NYC      3.11    1.76    0.3212      0.6788
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.10

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1    10.2223          1.0000
    2     1.6907          2.4589
    3     1.3503          2.7514
    4     1.2647          2.8431
    5     1.0421          3.1320
    6     0.9359          3.3050
    7     0.8028          3.5684
    8     0.7697          3.6443
    9     0.5777          4.2064
    10     0.4587          4.7209
    11     0.4063          5.0157
    12     0.3772          5.2059
    13     0.2630          6.2350
    14     0.2196          6.8222
    15     0.1755          7.6323
    16     0.1633          7.9118
    17     0.1412          8.5081
    18     0.0998         10.1182
    19     0.0216         21.7571
    20     0.0117         29.5006
    21     0.0058         41.8949
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        41.8949 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0006

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: IO_POPULATION

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP Income RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.59    1.26    0.6289      0.3711
Majoritarian_IG      1.56    1.25    0.6409      0.3591
  SECURITY      1.16    1.08    0.8599      0.1401
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.8024      0.1976
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.54    1.24    0.6509      0.3491
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.12    1.46    0.4711      0.5289
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.87    1.37    0.5351      0.4649
 UN_TREATY      1.51    1.23    0.6614      0.3386
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.49    1.22    0.6728      0.3272
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.37    1.17    0.7298      0.2702
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.78    1.67    0.3594      0.6406
       GDP      1.38    1.18    0.7230      0.2770
    Income      3.04    1.74    0.3293      0.6707
 RULEofLAW      2.84    1.69    0.3515      0.6485
      GINI      2.02    1.42    0.4942      0.5058
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.15    1.46    0.4662      0.5338
    NEW_IO      1.38    1.17    0.7249      0.2751
IO_ENGLISH      1.96    1.40    0.5114      0.4886
    IO_NYC      2.12    1.46    0.4715      0.5285
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.85

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     9.7264          1.0000
    2     1.3944          2.6411
    3     1.3503          2.6839
    4     1.2404          2.8003
    5     1.0361          3.0640
    6     0.9340          3.2270
    7     0.7907          3.5073
    8     0.7505          3.6000
    9     0.5777          4.1031
    10     0.4496          4.6512
    11     0.4060          4.8943
    12     0.3653          5.1602
    13     0.2477          6.2669
    14     0.2196          6.6547
    15     0.1682          7.6046
    16     0.1633          7.7188
    17     0.1401          8.3329
    18     0.0223         20.8914
    19     0.0118         28.6705
    20     0.0058         40.8371
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        40.8371 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0026

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2:  Income

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN MinisterWithCareerInSecurity GDP RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.57    1.25    0.6363      0.3637
Majoritarian_IG      1.56    1.25    0.6418      0.3582
  SECURITY      1.16    1.08    0.8609      0.1391
MINORITIES      1.25    1.12    0.8026      0.1974
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.43    1.20    0.6994      0.3006
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.12    1.46    0.4716      0.5284
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.74    1.32    0.5740      0.4260
 UN_TREATY      1.45    1.20    0.6890      0.3110
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.46    1.21    0.6837      0.3163
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.34    1.16    0.7436      0.2564
MinisterWithCareerInSecurity      2.35    1.53    0.4258      0.5742
       GDP      1.37    1.17    0.7273      0.2727
 RULEofLAW      2.13    1.46    0.4696      0.5304
      GINI      1.90    1.38    0.5274      0.4726
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      2.12    1.46    0.4712      0.5288
    NEW_IO      1.38    1.17    0.7266      0.2734
IO_ENGLISH      1.95    1.40    0.5125      0.4875
    IO_NYC      2.11    1.45    0.4747      0.5253
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.69

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     8.9520          1.0000
    2     1.3825          2.5447
    3     1.3390          2.5856
    4     1.2274          2.7006
    5     1.0360          2.9396
    6     0.9266          3.1082
    7     0.7899          3.3664
    8     0.7475          3.4606
    9     0.5637          3.9851
    10     0.4494          4.4632
    11     0.4059          4.6961
    12     0.3361          5.1611
    13     0.2467          6.0233
    14     0.2151          6.4507
    15     0.1649          7.3670
    16     0.1577          7.5348
    17     0.0415         14.6939
    18     0.0119         27.4679
    19     0.0060         38.6174
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        38.6174 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0078

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2: MinisterWithCareerInSecurity

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP RULEofLAW GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.57    1.25    0.6387      0.3613
Majoritarian_IG      1.55    1.25    0.6434      0.3566
  SECURITY      1.15    1.07    0.8678      0.1322
MINORITIES      1.24    1.11    0.8062      0.1938
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.39    1.18    0.7179      0.2821
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.12    1.46    0.4719      0.5281
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.66    1.29    0.6033      0.3967
 UN_TREATY      1.45    1.20    0.6919      0.3081
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.46    1.21    0.6842      0.3158
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.34    1.16    0.7463      0.2537
       GDP      1.33    1.15    0.7501      0.2499
 RULEofLAW      2.13    1.46    0.4697      0.5303
      GINI      1.86    1.36    0.5369      0.4631
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      1.19    1.09    0.8422      0.1578
    NEW_IO      1.35    1.16    0.7425      0.2575
IO_ENGLISH      1.95    1.40    0.5131      0.4869
    IO_NYC      2.11    1.45    0.4748      0.5252
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.58

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     8.4382          1.0000
    2     1.3824          2.4706
    3     1.2456          2.6028
    4     1.1764          2.6783
    5     1.0223          2.8729
    6     0.8052          3.2373
    7     0.7715          3.3071
    8     0.7397          3.3775
    9     0.5552          3.8986
    10     0.4423          4.3679
    11     0.4044          4.5682
    12     0.3345          5.0229
    13     0.2446          5.8730
    14     0.2141          6.2786
    15     0.1632          7.1902
    16     0.0424         14.0998
    17     0.0120         26.4890
    18     0.0060         37.3836
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        37.3836 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0184

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2:  RULEofLAW

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH IO_NYC
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.57    1.25    0.6387      0.3613
Majoritarian_IG      1.55    1.25    0.6437      0.3563
  SECURITY      1.15    1.07    0.8679      0.1321
MINORITIES      1.23    1.11    0.8129      0.1871
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.39    1.18    0.7198      0.2802
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      2.06    1.44    0.4853      0.5147
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.66    1.29    0.6034      0.3966
 UN_TREATY      1.43    1.20    0.6971      0.3029
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.44    1.20    0.6955      0.3045
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.27    1.13    0.7866      0.2134
       GDP      1.30    1.14    0.7678      0.2322
      GINI      1.34    1.16    0.7435      0.2565
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      1.19    1.09    0.8434      0.1566
    NEW_IO      1.35    1.16    0.7430      0.2570
IO_ENGLISH      1.94    1.39    0.5143      0.4857
    IO_NYC      2.10    1.45    0.4751      0.5249
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.50

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     7.5355          1.0000
    2     1.3551          2.3581
    3     1.2438          2.4614
    4     1.1698          2.5380
    5     1.0135          2.7267
    6     0.8047          3.0601
    7     0.7715          3.1252
    8     0.7395          3.1921
    9     0.5534          3.6900
    10     0.4406          4.1353
    11     0.4043          4.3171
    12     0.3290          4.7856
    13     0.2428          5.5714
    14     0.2076          6.0242
    15     0.1611          6.8398
    16     0.0214         18.7480
    17     0.0061         35.0086
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        35.0086 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0392

. * Dropping the variable with the highest VIF score greater than 2:  IO_NYC

. collin SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH
(obs=243)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
SUPRANATIONAL      1.53    1.24    0.6525      0.3475
Majoritarian_IG      1.47    1.21    0.6819      0.3181
  SECURITY      1.15    1.07    0.8685      0.1315
MINORITIES      1.23    1.11    0.8161      0.1839
NUMBER_ENEMIES      1.39    1.18    0.7200      0.2800
NUMBER_COMMUNIST      1.82    1.35    0.5495      0.4505
NUMBER_ISLAMIC      1.65    1.28    0.6079      0.3921
 UN_TREATY      1.33    1.15    0.7523      0.2477
US_MEMBERSHIP      1.43    1.20    0.7000      0.3000
VotingSimilarityInUN      1.25    1.12    0.7973      0.2027
       GDP      1.26    1.12    0.7951      0.2049
      GINI      1.34    1.16    0.7440      0.2560
RIGHT_GOVERNMENT      1.19    1.09    0.8435      0.1565
    NEW_IO      1.34    1.16    0.7440      0.2560
IO_ENGLISH      1.31    1.14    0.7653      0.2347
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      1.38

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     7.3144          1.0000
    2     1.3086          2.3642
    3     1.1700          2.5003
    4     1.0285          2.6668
    5     0.8961          2.8571
    6     0.8009          3.0221
    7     0.7561          3.1102
    8     0.6799          3.2801
    9     0.5479          3.6537
    10     0.4287          4.1304
    11     0.3349          4.6735
    12     0.2798          5.1128
    13     0.2376          5.5479
    14     0.1887          6.2255
    15     0.0215         18.4290
    16     0.0062         34.2521
---------------------------------
 Condition Number        34.2521 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0825





. * Appendix 4 probit Regression (A4.5)

. probit SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH, vce(robust) nolog

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =        243
                                                  Wald chi2(15)   =      58.64
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -19.472308                 Pseudo R2       =     0.4464

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     |               Robust
  SEC_SECURITIZATION |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       SUPRANATIONAL |   .7710869   .5495842     1.40   0.161    -.3060784    1.848252
     Majoritarian_IG |   .1017259   .4691677     0.22   0.828    -.8178258    1.021278
            SECURITY |   .7574333   .5342165     1.42   0.156    -.2896119    1.804478
          MINORITIES |   1.467601   .5748323     2.55   0.011     .3409504    2.594252
      NUMBER_ENEMIES |   .2758592   .1178003     2.34   0.019     .0449749    .5067435
    NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .0132774   .0648997     0.20   0.838    -.1139237    .1404785
      NUMBER_ISLAMIC |  -.0530087   .0803433    -0.66   0.509    -.2104786    .1044613
           UN_TREATY |  -.9376752   .4712275    -1.99   0.047    -1.861264   -.0140862
       US_MEMBERSHIP |    -.02545   .4528435    -0.06   0.955    -.9130069    .8621069
VotingSimilarityInUN |  -3.832823   1.757839    -2.18   0.029    -7.278124   -.3875226
                 GDP |   -4.56714   3.709156    -1.23   0.218    -11.83695    2.702672
                GINI |   .0504422   .0269179     1.87   0.061     -.002316    .1032004
    RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .7125645   .3612254     1.97   0.049     .0045758    1.420553
              NEW_IO |  -.9717883   .5233287    -1.86   0.063    -1.997494    .0539171
          IO_ENGLISH |   .5724919   .3814851     1.50   0.133    -.1752051    1.320189
               _cons |  -1.421871   1.903652    -0.75   0.455     -5.15296    2.309218
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 7 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. * Calculating the probability of an act of secondary securitization based on Regression (A4.5). We regard this calculated probability of secondary securitization as encapsulating the objective element that drives the performance or non-performance of secondary securitization acts as we documented them.

. predict InstrV2_SEC_SECURITIZATION
(option pr assumed; Pr(SEC_SECURITIZATION))

. * Calculating the residual, which is regarded as encapsulating the non-objective element that drives the performance or non-performance of the documented acts of secondary securitization, and a purer measure of secondary securitization.

. gen ResidV2_SEC_SECURITIZATION = SEC_SECURITIZATION - InstrV2_SEC_SECURITIZATION





. * Appendix 4 Regression (A4.3)

. stcox InstrV2_SEC_SECURITIZATION ResidV2_SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP Income GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT, vce(cluster SECURITY)

         failure _d:  Access88
   analysis time _t:  TimeToRatification

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -676.8202
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -616.77373
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.40387
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.34698
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.34672
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.34672
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -612.34672

Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          239                Number of obs   =       239
No. of failures      =          136
Time at risk         =         2673
                                                   Wald chi2(1)    =      1.92
Log pseudolikelihood =   -612.34672                Prob > chi2     =    0.1654

                                             (Std. Err. adjusted for 2 clusters in SECURITY)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           |               Robust
                        _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
InstrV2_SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .3095778    .261679    -1.39   0.165     .0590566    1.622822
ResidV2_SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .5950537   .0255202   -12.10   0.000     .5470796    .6472347
             SUPRANATIONAL |   1.000576    .017584     0.03   0.974      .966699    1.035641
           Majoritarian_IG |   1.294386   .1622537     2.06   0.040     1.012428    1.654868
                  SECURITY |   1.139387   .0653911     2.27   0.023     1.018168    1.275038
                MINORITIES |   1.578669   .0282753    25.49   0.000     1.524212    1.635072
            NUMBER_ENEMIES |   1.072127   .0557186     1.34   0.180     .9682985    1.187089
          NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .8829841   .0017624   -62.35   0.000     .8795365    .8864451
            NUMBER_ISLAMIC |   1.078783   .0052246    15.66   0.000     1.068592    1.089072
                 UN_TREATY |     1.0675   .0325217     2.14   0.032     1.005624    1.133183
             US_MEMBERSHIP |    1.33253   .0899291     4.25   0.000     1.167432    1.520976
      VotingSimilarityInUN |   .0088529   .0045896    -9.12   0.000     .0032048    .0244553
                       GDP |   .6094498   .1497534    -2.02   0.044     .3765144    .9864936
                    Income |   .3738835   .0213839   -17.20   0.000     .3342355    .4182346
                      GINI |   1.080495   .0008417    99.39   0.000     1.078847    1.082146
          RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .2880474   .0126193   -28.41   0.000     .2643461    .3138738
          UNITY_GOVERNMENT |   .1978753   .0409734    -7.82   0.000      .131867    .2969252
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





. * Appendix 4 Regression A4.4

. * Calculating the probability of an act of secondary securitization, now restricted to the 65 treaties for we found documnetation of ratification discussions, and using the restricted model. We regard this calculated probability of secondary securitization as encapsulating the objective element that drives the performance or non-performance of secondary securitization acts as we documented them.

. probit SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT NEW_IO IO_ENGLISH if ArchivedDisc==1, vce(robust) nolog

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =         65
                                                  Wald chi2(15)   =      29.71
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0130
Log pseudolikelihood = -12.148954                 Pseudo R2       =     0.4989

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     |               Robust
  SEC_SECURITIZATION |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       SUPRANATIONAL |   1.340323    .827388     1.62   0.105    -.2813279    2.961974
     Majoritarian_IG |   .0974189    .593845     0.16   0.870    -1.066496    1.261334
            SECURITY |   .0018997   .6555123     0.00   0.998    -1.282881     1.28668
          MINORITIES |   1.381587   .7913985     1.75   0.081    -.1695261    2.932699
      NUMBER_ENEMIES |   .4130161   .1627032     2.54   0.011     .0941237    .7319084
    NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .1232061   .1095419     1.12   0.261     -.091492    .3379042
      NUMBER_ISLAMIC |   .0936509   .1081605     0.87   0.387    -.1183397    .3056416
           UN_TREATY |  -2.429395   .9437638    -2.57   0.010    -4.279138   -.5796515
       US_MEMBERSHIP |   .3629584   .5897395     0.62   0.538    -.7929098    1.518827
VotingSimilarityInUN |  -6.510324    2.92063    -2.23   0.026    -12.23465   -.7859936
                 GDP |  -7.161874   4.598092    -1.56   0.119    -16.17397    1.850221
                GINI |   .0943826   .0636046     1.48   0.138      -.03028    .2190452
    RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   1.036403   .8846347     1.17   0.241    -.6974491    2.770255
              NEW_IO |  -3.192657   .9910027    -3.22   0.001    -5.134987   -1.250328
          IO_ENGLISH |   .1154131   .5386111     0.21   0.830    -.9402453    1.171071
               _cons |   -.122763   2.887637    -0.04   0.966    -5.782428    5.536902
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 5 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. predict InstrV265_SEC_SECURITIZATION
(option pr assumed; Pr(SEC_SECURITIZATION))

. * Calculating the residual, which is regarded as encapsulating the non-objective element that drives the performance or non-performance of the documented acts of secondary securitization, and a purer measure of secondary securitization.

. gen ResidV265_SEC_SECURITIZATION = SEC_SECURITIZATION - InstrV265_SEC_SECURITIZATION

. stcox InstrV265_SEC_SECURITIZATION ResidV265_SEC_SECURITIZATION SUPRANATIONAL Majoritarian_IG SECURITY MINORITIES  NUMBER_ENEMIES NUMBER_COMMUNIST NUMBER_ISLAMIC UN_TREATY US_MEMBERSHIP VotingSimilarityInUN GDP Income GINI RIGHT_GOVERNMENT UNITY_GOVERNMENT, vce(cluster SECURITY)

         failure _d:  Access88
   analysis time _t:  TimeToRatification

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -676.8202
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -616.22462
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -611.49028
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -611.4087
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -611.40826
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -611.40826
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -611.40826

Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          239                Number of obs   =       239
No. of failures      =          136
Time at risk         =         2673
                                                   Wald chi2(1)    =    138.16
Log pseudolikelihood =   -611.40826                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                               (Std. Err. adjusted for 2 clusters in SECURITY)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust
                          _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
InstrV265_SEC_SECURITIZATION |   .2926278   .0322638   -11.15   0.000     .2357577    .3632162
ResidV265_SEC_SECURITIZATION |    .656851   .0108702   -25.40   0.000     .6358875    .6785055
               SUPRANATIONAL |   1.146746   .0317613     4.94   0.000     1.086154    1.210717
             Majoritarian_IG |   1.367085   .1683566     2.54   0.011     1.073916    1.740288
                    SECURITY |   1.177133   .0153312    12.52   0.000     1.147464    1.207568
                  MINORITIES |   1.409336   .0239914    20.16   0.000     1.363089    1.457151
              NUMBER_ENEMIES |   1.073611   .0456664     1.67   0.095     .9877357    1.166952
            NUMBER_COMMUNIST |   .8937965   .0083782   -11.98   0.000     .8775254    .9103693
              NUMBER_ISLAMIC |   1.089817   .0117582     7.97   0.000     1.067014    1.113108
                   UN_TREATY |   .9815746   .0174328    -1.05   0.295     .9479948    1.016344
               US_MEMBERSHIP |   1.332435   .0791817     4.83   0.000     1.185939    1.497028
        VotingSimilarityInUN |   .0070799   .0029819   -11.75   0.000     .0031011    .0161635
                         GDP |   .5787919    .156568    -2.02   0.043     .3406163    .9835116
                      Income |    .358838   .0183691   -20.02   0.000     .3245824    .3967087
                        GINI |   1.086044   .0021608    41.49   0.000     1.081817    1.090287
            RIGHT_GOVERNMENT |   .3037858   .0208624   -17.35   0.000     .2655286     .347555
            UNITY_GOVERNMENT |   .1972996    .034842    -9.19   0.000     .1395754    .2788969
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

